New Delhi: As the US presidential election draws to a close, the outcome will have significant implications not only for America but also for economies around the world, particularly India. The distinct policy differences between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are expected to impact several sectors in India.
According to brokerage firm PL Capital, a Trump administration may influence global geopolitics, crude oil prices, defense technology, and pharmaceuticals. Current market predictions indicate a 56.5% chance of a Trump victory compared to a 43.5% probability for Harris, although opinion polls suggest a tightly contested race. The official results of the US election are set to be released on November 6 at 8:45 AM IST, with initial results anticipated shortly after polls close at 6 PM Eastern Time (22:00 GMT).
“The upcoming US presidential election could have critical implications for India, especially amid escalating geopolitical tensions, changes in leadership in Bangladesh, and a fragile situation in Southeast Asia,” PL Capital noted in its ‘India Strategy’ report. The US stance is crucial as India navigates tensions in South Asia and manages strategic shifts in the Indo-Pacific region.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Potential Policies Impacting India
1. Trade Policy
- Kamala Harris: Advocates for multilateral trade agreements and regional collaborations, such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. She is likely to reinstate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had previously benefited Indian exports.
- Donald Trump: Favors protectionism, focusing on renegotiating trade deals and imposing tariffs. The termination of GSP in 2019 adversely affected $6.3 billion worth of Indian exports.
Implications: Harris’s policies could stabilize trade with India, while Trump’s approach may disrupt global trade but create opportunities for India to fill gaps left by reduced Chinese imports.
2. Immigration Policy
- Kamala Harris: Supports expanding skilled worker visas, demonstrated by high approval rates for H-1B visas during Biden’s tenure.
- Donald Trump: Plans to tighten immigration rules, which previously led to a decline in H-1B visa approvals under his administration.
