Taipei: The first time China faced Donald Trump in the White House, it led to a trade war, a breach of protocol involving Taiwan’s former leader, and a president-to-president relationship that eventually soured. As President-elect Trump prepares for his second term, China is bracing for renewed tensions over trade, technology, and Taiwan.
One of the most significant consequences for China, if Trump stays true to his campaign promises, is his threat to impose blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S. Such tariffs could severely impact China’s already unstable economy, which is grappling with high youth unemployment, a prolonged property slump, and rising government debt. According to an analysis by UBS, a 60% duty on Chinese goods could slash China’s projected economic growth by 2.5 percentage points, approximately halving its growth rate.
During Trump’s previous term, the U.S. imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion worth of Chinese products, forcing Beijing to the negotiating table. In 2020, the two sides signed a trade deal where China committed to improving intellectual property rights and buying an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods. However, a later research report revealed that China had failed to meet its purchasing commitments. President Joe Biden retained most of the previous tariffs and added new duties this year on items like steel, solar cells, and electric vehicles. Experts suggest that tariffs could once again be used to compel Beijing to negotiate.
If China were to invade Taiwan, Trump has warned that he could impose even higher tariffs of 150% to 200% on Chinese goods. The U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country but is its strongest supporter and largest arms provider. Trump’s relationship with Beijing was also strained in December 2016 when he took a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s then-president Tsai Ing-wen, breaking decades of diplomatic protocol. No U.S. president had directly communicated with a Taiwanese leader since Washington and Beijing established ties in 1979.
