Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader and mastermind behind the attack on Israel in October 2023, was killed by Israeli Defense Forces in southern Gaza on Thursday.
Sinwar had recently taken over as Hamas’ leader in July, following the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran.
He had managed to evade capture for months, hiding in the tunnels beneath Gaza.
In Gaza, no figure loomed larger in determining the war’s trajectory than the 61-year-old Hamas leader. His sudden death has left a leadership void within Hamas, and the critical question now is: who will replace him during this crucial phase of the Gaza conflict?
Here are the top 5 leaders who may succeed Yahya Sinwar:
1. Mohammed Sinwar
Yahya’s younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar, is one of the first names to emerge as a potential successor. Like his brother, Mohammed is deeply involved in Hamas’ military wing.
Although the 49-year-old leader has maintained a low profile, he plays a significant role in the group’s operations, having survived multiple assassination attempts by Israel. His appointment would likely mean the continuation of his brother’s hardline approach to ceasefire talks. Experts speculate that Hamas may escalate violence in retaliation for Yahya’s death, including the possible execution of hostages.
2. Mahmoud al-Zahar
Mahmoud al-Zahar, a founding member of Hamas, is another prominent name speculated to succeed Sinwar. Known for his rigid approach, he has played a crucial role in shaping the group’s ideological framework, advocating for militant resistance against Israel and Islamist governance in Gaza.
Al-Zahar was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006 and served as Hamas’ first foreign minister after their electoral victory that year. He has survived multiple assassination attempts, in the years 1992 and 2003.
Though he has not made any public appearances since October 7, he remains a popular figure within Hamas.
3. Khalil al-Hayya
Khalil al-Hayya is another high-profile leader within Hamas, having served as Yahya’s deputy. He has acted as the top negotiator in indirect ceasefire talks with Israel during past conflicts and is currently based in Qatar.
The 63-year-old’s leadership could play a pivotal role in diplomatic efforts. Al-Hayya’s involvement in the 2014 ceasefire talks with Israel demonstrated his ability to engage in high-level negotiations. He survived an Israeli airstrike in 2007 that killed members of his family.
His political diplomacy and connections to international mediators, specifically in Doha, make him a figure that both Hamas and Israel could potentially work with in ceasefire talks.
4. Mousa Abu Marzouk
Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior member of Hamas, is another potential contender. He was instrumental in the establishment of Hamas after breaking away from the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1980s.
Abu Marzouk has served as the head of Hamas’ political bureau and has been involved in its organizational and financial operations, including support for militant activities. He was arrested in the United States in the 1990s for his involvement in terrorism-related activities and deported to Jordan. Despite spending much of his time in exile, his experience and adherence to Hamas’ core ideology make him a strong candidate for political leadership.
5. Khaled Meshaal
Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas from 2004 to 2017, remains a respected figure within the group. Currently based in Qatar, Meshaal played a key role in Hamas’ escalations of violence and has been a vocal proponent of suicide bombings against Israel.
His public opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian Civil War strained relations with Iran, a key Hamas ally. Nonetheless, Meshaal’s longstanding influence within the organization makes him a possible candidate to step back into leadership during this critical time.
