According to the United Nations, 2024 is poised to be “the biggest election year in human history,” with half of the world’s population—approximately 3.7 billion people across 72 countries—eligible to vote. However, not all elections carry the same weight, which is why global attention is focused on the United States as it heads to the polls. The U.S. is the world’s largest economy and biggest military power, serving as a lynchpin for many international strategic alliances, the economic and financial system, and numerous liberal institutions worldwide.
These elections represent a pivotal moment in U.S. history, with potentially massive implications for governance and the future of the post-war order that Washington has helped establish. Unlike any election since 1945, the fundamental tenets of U.S. relations with the rest of the world are up for debate. The choice lies between Donald Trump’s Republican Party, which may represent a complete break from the U.S.’s traditional role in the international community, and Kamala Harris’s more international agenda under the Democrats, which would likely maintain a significant U.S. presence in NATO, for instance.
One of the most conspicuous assaults on the U.S.’s foreign policy tradition is Trump’s plan to impose a universal tariff of 20% on all foreign imports, with tariffs on China potentially reaching 60-200%. Such measures would likely be inflationary and damaging to the American economy, leading to retaliation, trade wars, and disruption of the global economy. Trump’s plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, repeal environmental protection measures enacted by Joe Biden, and deregulate the exploitation of U.S. oil and gas deposits could add significant carbon emissions and undermine global climate efforts.
Moreover, the commitment of the U.S. to defend its allies against hostile states is also in question. While the Biden administration has supported NATO and Ukraine with military and financial aid to counter Russian aggression, Trump has suggested he would end this support and pressure Ukraine to accept peace on Moscow’s terms. Concerns about the integrity of U.S. elections also loom large, as Trump has consistently refused to accept the legitimacy of elections he has lost, convincing a majority of Republican voters that the 2020 election was stolen. This election, and its aftermath, could determine the future of American democracy, which has long inspired the world but now appears deeply divided on fundamental issues.
